Why the trade makes absolutely no sense to me

Published Dec. 12, 2009 at 10:49 a.m.

It would be a serious folly to close the books on a trade within days of it occurring. Moving salary can lead to bringing in new players. Players a team traded for can be traded again. So, I'm not going to declare this the trade of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for Max Scherzer, Dan Schlereth, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke as making no sense at all.

However, I am going to question whether or not the trade makes as much sense as people think. There are chief explanations -- not necessarily mutually exclusive -- for why the Tigers had to make the move, and why it makes sense.

One says, the payroll was too high. Detroit couldn't possibly continue it. So they had to move some contracts. Like the $5.5 contract of Curtis Granderson. And the $4 million or so Jackson will likely make next season. I reject this view.

The second view says that the Tigers' had too many holes in the big league club and the farm system, so they had to infuse the organization with some high quality talent. On that, I agree completely. However, given the players received I have to reject this view, as well.

So when I look at what actually happened, I fail to see the vision of the ballclub, both in the past 18 months, and at this very moment.

The money thing

The Tigers appeared set to have a payroll around $125 million, $130 or so if the Tigers want to play a closer. At the Detroit Tigers Weblog, Billfer projects that payroll at around $115M right now. The savings in 2010 of $9 or $10 million is truly not that significant -- about 8 percent. Now it's true, Granderson will cost $8.25 million in 2011 and $10M in 2012. But given the Tigers' payroll nosedives to $43 million in 2011 obligations, this doesn't appear to be a contract the organization needed to shed to assure its long-term health.

This is a club with a TV contract worth 400 million over 10 years, that receives anywhere from $20 to $35 million in revenue sharing (thank Scott Boras for sharing that), that likely brought in $60-65 million in ticket revenue (based on the average ticket price of $25 per Forbes, and 2.56 million tickets). Assuming the minimums, that's $120 million in those three revenue streams alone in 2009. (Hat tip to Billfer and Phil Wezner of TigsTown for getting the first line of research on the topic).

So, I'm sorry. I just don't buy it being caused by money. In the big picture, the savings weren't that great, and could just as easily have been accumulated by trading Edwin Jackson, moving catcher Gerald Laird and non-tendering lefty specialist Bobby Seay. And if a billionaire baseball fan/owner can't absorb a loss for 2010, then he'd better stop enjoying the nice press given to him.

So it's not about the money.

The organization-building thing

This makes a lot more sense to me. Detroit has upcoming holes at both corner outfielder spots, shortstop, third base, and starting pitching. The organization has a few five-star prospect starting pitchers in the minor leagues who will step up, maybe as soon as 2011, definitely by 2012. But that still leave a lot of holes in 2011.

So yes, I could very much see moving the Tigers' most-tradable commodities to put the franchise in a better spot moving forward.

So let's see what the Tigers got:

• Frontline MLB starter -- Max Scherzer -- great start, I like it. However, he was reportedly offered straight up for Edwin Jackson -- and for the doubters, we heard this report before the New York Post wrote it.
• Highly-regarded center field prospect -- Austin Jackson -- does not fill any holes. This was a requirement to trade your center fielder without creating another hole. However, it may have created a hole, as his career strikeout rate is around 20 percent plus in the minor leagues, and he has just one season (of four, two seasons ago) of showing any power. His high batting average has been helped by seasons of .395 BABIP and .390 BABIP, highly unsustainable numbers. He has never had a season as good as Tigers outfield prospect Casper Wells, playing in the same leagues at the same time. (OK, that may be a bit of a stretch, since Jackson was at Triple-A in 2009, but still Jackson has problems.) But hey, he can cover more ground in center field anyway. So Detroit reallllllly has to hope the hype translates to the major leagues with Jackson. And even then, when is he supposed to be a seasoned veteran contributing to a contender? We're asking for a big leap if that season is 2011.
• Low-ceiling lefty specialist -- Phil Coke
• High-ceiling lefty reliever -- Daniel Schlereth --OK, maybe Coke can relieve against both RH and LH hitters. His splits (vs. RH OPS of .765) aren't horrible, just not real promising. He would join lefty relievers Fu-Te Ni, Bobby Seay, Brad Thomas, Schlereth (and possibly Andrew Oliver) in that role, with lefty starter Nate Robertson in the rotation. Actually, the best use of Coke to receive value would be an innings-eating No. 5 starting pitcher, and he may be able to hold that down. Which bumps Robertson to the bullpen. And oh yes, the bullpen already has Zach Miner, Joel Zumaya and Ryan Perry with Robbie Weinhardt trying to elbow his way in. Schlereth had better prove to be the closer of the group, giving the Tigers some value earned that way.

And this is the problem with the trade. The Tigers spent 2008 and 2009 drafting several relief pitchers with low-to-middle major league ceilings who were close to the majors. Perry was a 2008 first-rounder. Cody Satterwhite was the second-round pick. Weinhardt a ninth rounder. Oliver a 2009 second-rounder. (In theory, he is a starting pitcher, but he translates much better as a reliever and will keep the role warm only until 2009 first rounder Jacob Turner matures a season or two later.)

The Tigers' cup overfloweth with relief pitching -- either that or with wasted draft picks, your call. And yet, relief pitching is notoriously fickle. They're failed starters basically. If they weren't failed starters, they have a higher value to the team as, well, actual starters. Sure, there are crazy teams like the Astros out there who overpay for it, but as a rule you can put together an effective bullpen fine without spending like crazy. And, oh yes, I'm not sure this bullpen screams at me "best in the league." Actually, I'm sure it doesn't.

Yet, this was the haul for the trade? 

So, remind me again, exactly, how did this trade benefit the organization in the long run?

As I said in the introduction, it's too early to know how it will turn out. Now with pitching overflowing, the Tigers may choose to move some to fill some holes. I hope that is the case.

But if they don't, the crop of upcoming talent (shortstop Cale Iorg or Audy Ciriaco; third baseman fill-in-the-blank; outfielders Brennan Boesch and Ryan Strieby) does not say "division winner" to me. It says, "Low-cost team making a profit for the owner and frustrating fans."

The freed-up money fallacy

The star of the 2011 free-agent class may be Verlander. The reason I say that is that some superstars are indeed coming up for free agency -- Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes (does he count anymore?) -- but what are the odds their team lets them? I'd say pretty low. Victor Martinez could help (as a DH?), but the Red Sox are currently trying to extend him, as well.

Brandon Webb may hit the market, but then we get back to the initial problem, starting pitching is actually a strength, and pitching is what the Tigers traded for. And if Verlander is not traded for prospects to fill the still-remaining holes, he'll probably be inked to an extension.

The best third baseman available may just be...Brandon Inge?!

So the Tigers have freed up money. Great.

The only way they'll get a chance to spend it is by finding a club having a fire sale and taking the contract off its hands. Or maybe they could give out bad contracts to mediocre free agents. I hope that isn't the plan!

Conclusion

There was no plan.

Reward manager Jim Leyland with a contract through 2011, then take away the best players on his team. That's something that has never worked well with Leyland in the past.

Use up your early-round draft picks on relief pitchers, then trade your star center fielder for relief pitchers.

Free up extra money for an offseason with a rather bland free-agent class.

Right now, I am failing to see exactly how the Tigers are going to put this puzzle back together and create a contender in 2011 and beyond. The only way I believe they can do it is the kind of trades that brought Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco to the team in the mid-2000s. Can lightning strike twice? Let's hope so.

Because right now, it looks like dark days ahead.

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